One score. Traceable evidence. Versioned rules.

Methodology v2 - July 17, 2026

Pop Terminal's research model separates a slower-moving Base Conviction score from a bounded Event Pulse. Every published score identifies its model version, input coverage, as-of time, freshness, and supporting evidence. A Confidence score is an explainable research measure, not a probability of profit or a personalized recommendation.

Base Conviction

The five factors and original weights are:

• Valuation - 25%: price relative to fundamentals and market expectations.
• Growth - 25%: revenue, earnings, income, and forward growth.
• Quality - 20%: margins, returns, cash conversion, and balance-sheet quality.
• Risk - 15%: a higher factor score means lower measured business and financial risk.
• Street - 15%: analyst tilt, target context, and revision momentum.

Valid existing factor formulas are preserved within a model version, with their underlying metrics and thresholds documented. Full precision is retained internally; the interface displays rounded whole numbers.

Missing data and coverage

A missing factor remains null and is never replaced with an artificial 50. Available factor weights are renormalized to calculate the score. Coverage is the sum of the original weights represented by available factors. At least 60% coverage is required to publish a number; otherwise Pop Terminal shows "Insufficient data" and names the missing factors.

Score bands

• High Conviction: 85-100
• Constructive: 70-84
• Balanced: 55-69
• Cautious: 40-54
• Low Conviction: 0-39

Bands describe model output only. They are not Buy, Sell, Hold, or suitability labels.

Event Pulse and displayed Confidence

Displayed Confidence equals Base Conviction plus Event Pulse, clamped to 0-100. Event Pulse is bounded to -10 through +10. A single direct event can contribute no more than -3 through +3, and each event category is capped at -4 through +4. Syndicated copies count once.

Numeric impacts come from deterministic rules. AI may structure, classify, and explain evidence but cannot choose a numeric delta. Official filings and company disclosures receive the highest reliability; normalized analyst and ownership data follow. An uncorroborated rumor contributes zero numerical impact.

Direct and related-company evidence

Direct events concern the scored company. Customer, supplier, peer, and sector events are identified separately as related-company read-throughs. They require an approved relationship with confidence of at least 0.80 and receive no more than half the impact of an equivalent direct event.

Decay and double-counting controls

Active impacts decay linearly over these windows:

• Company-issued earnings or guidance: 90 days.
• Analyst revisions: 30 days.
• Insider events: 60 days.
• Institutional filings: 90 days.
• Ordinary news and peer read-throughs: 14 days.

When a base-factor refresh incorporates the same information, its remaining pulse impact is marked absorbed and removed. The post-decay contributions must sum exactly to the displayed Event Pulse and remain replayable.

What changed today

Today's change compares the current snapshot with the previous US trading-day close snapshot. Seven-day movement is shown separately. Every event should identify the affected symbol, direct or related status, factor or thesis pillar, signed impact, source, relevant event date, ingestion time, and freshness. For 13F evidence, the reporting period and filing date are distinct; the filing does not imply a trade occurred today.

Historical replay and model changes

A historical date restores the score, factors, active evidence, and explanation stored at that time. Snapshots and impact ledgers are immutable audit records. Material formula or threshold changes create a new model version rather than silently rewriting earlier results.

Portfolio methodology

Portfolio Confidence, Base Conviction, Event Pulse, and factor values are weighted aggregates of covered holdings. Explicit weights are used only when every holding supplies a valid weight; otherwise complete market values are used, then shares multiplied by the latest available price, and finally equal weights. Accepted weights are normalized to 100%, and the selected method is disclosed.

Concentration, sector concentration, beta, correlation, and largest risk contributors are construction diagnostics shown separately. Construction quality is never blended into conviction. Missing or stale holding data lowers coverage and can make the portfolio output incomplete.

Model governance

Pop Terminal tests exact reconciliation, coverage behavior, caps, decay, deduplication, related-event discounts, absorption, conflicting evidence, provider failures, and Free/Pro score equality before activating a model version. Source or model corrections can change future outputs; they do not create a guarantee of completeness or performance.

See Data Limitations and the Financial Disclaimer for the boundaries of these outputs.